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Friday, April 03, 2009

Early gains and a few mistakes

So as you will see from my last entry, I have already started to make money and at a much better rate than a savings account can offer, but despite his I feel I have already made some mistakes by ignoring a basic principle on which my strategy is built.

So far I have said the basic strategy involves small bets on sure things, but over the last couple of days I am already regretting one bet I have made.  In case you hadn’t already guessed its the Lewis Hamilton to beat Jenson Button over the course of the F1 season.

Now you may be thinking I am regretting this given Hamilton’s less than stellar start to the season which at this point consists of being a couple of seconds of the pace in practice, starting from the back of the grid in the Australian Grand Prix and then having his 3rd place taken away.  If so you’d be wrong, I expect McLaren to improve and as such Hamilton’s performance to improve so still feel he has a good chance of beating Button over the season and that the bet gave a reasonable return.  The reason I regret it is I took it because I thought it offered a reasonable return and it is what is sometimes referred to as a ‘fun’ bet.  Some professional gamblers might say that all my bets are ‘fun’ bets, but I’d like to think there is a bit more to what I am doing than that.

The reason for saying this is I got a little carried away at the start of the experiment and placed more bets than I needed, including some I perhaps wouldn’t have made if I had sat back and thought about it for a moment.  Going forward, it is important to remember, its not the quantity of bets I make, its the quality.  So add ‘NO FUN BETS’ to ‘small stakes on sure things’ to the strategy.

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